NFL Week 11 Predict-a-thon: Where Going For It on 4th and 2 is the ONLY Choice
Let’s be real here: I hate the Patriots about as much as a punch in the kisser. Arrogant teams with arrogant fan bases have an unfortunate position in sports, and Boston’s big three teams are the cream of the crop. Hateful disposition notwithstanding, Bill Belichick’s decision on a 4th down play last Sunday night was extremely gutsy. And smart.
Belichick’s Patriots squad are far too familiar with Peyton Manning and his late-game heroics. The 2006 AFC Championship game is surely still leaving a bad taste in the entire organization’s mouths. You just cannot leave Peyton Manning any amount of time to score, especially in the clutch. He may be significantly known as a choke artist in the playoffs, but we’re several weeks apart from the playoffs. This was just another big game. Peyton Manning wins big games.
Punting on that 4th down play still gives Manning and his offense the ball. Granted, it’s much better to have the opposing team pinned back as far up the field as possible rather than the red zone, but Belichick’s philosophy was simple: kill the clock.
And when you have a future hall of fame quarterback with three rings, an endless resume of accomplishments and feats, and a supporting cast with play makers such as Randy Moss and Wes Welker, 4th and 2 all of a sudden sounds more like routine than a gamble.
Belichick tried to put the game away. His incredibly well coached offense came up short. Even proven winners run into a roadblock.
If you’re Peyton Manning, though, the roadblock for this season remains nonexistent. At 9-0, the Colts look to have a tight grip on the AFC’s top seed. Their remaining schedule is a mixed bag. This Sunday’s showdown with the Ravens may prove to be a tough test for the Manning-led offense. Then next week, they travel to Houston to play a Texans team with playoff intentions and are itching for revenge after their Week 9 defeat at Indianapolis. A home game against the Broncos remains on the horizon as well. The rest of the schedule looks very favorable, including games against two inferior division rivals, a fizzling Jets team, and a finale at Buffalo against a team slamming on the reset button after firing head coach Dick Jauron. The Colts are, at worst, looking at a 13-3 record. Not bad for a post-Dungy era, I’ll say.
Patriots nation will have to bite on their tongues for a little while (easier said than done). They have a potentially enduring three game stretch coming up, including two divisional games in which will look to decide the AFC East crown and the BIGGEST Monday Night Football showdown of the season against the Saints. A 2-0 record against the Jets and the Dolphins will just about lockup the division for New England, but if they can beat the should-be undefeated Saints in the Superdome next Monday, the road to the second seed of the AFC becomes a little less bumpy. The Patriots franchise are not exactly strangers to running a stretch of games, as their 2007 season would indicate.
The Patriots have company in the race for the second seed, though. Coming off of a divisional sweep against the Steelers, the Bengals are easily the league’s most surprising team at 7-2. They are in the driver’s seat in their division, and with a schedule as light as theirs, you have to like the chances of Cincinnati potentially gaining home field advantage in the playoffs. Their next three games are against teams with a combined record of 4-23. A tough two game stretch on the road against the Vikings and the Chargers will prove to be their biggest remaining games, as both teams are playoff contenders. Their season concludes with games against the Chiefs and the Jets. Even if they drop three of their remaining games, the Bengals hold tiebreakers against the rest of the division. The AFC North looks to be theirs for the taking, but if you’re part of the Bengals organization, you’re looking to shoot for a top seed. Regardless of the outcome, you know times are swell in Cincinnati when ONLY winning the AFC North is considered underachieving.
Now then, onto the games.
WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS
(The home teams are in ALL CAPS.)
GAME OF THE WEEK: San Diego Chargers AT DENVER BRONCOS
The lead in the AFC West comes down to the winner of this game. The Broncos were off to one of the hottest starts in the league at 6-0, but after their bye week, the Ravens and Steelers shut down the offense crafted by Josh McDaniels. Now with Kyle Orton injured, their offensive progression looks to be in jeopardy. In Orton sits out, Chris Simms gets the start. Simms was uncomfortable and confused in an offense built around somebody with Kyle Orton’s capabilities. Not to mention, the Chargers have suddenly found a bit of production out of their defense. Shawne Merriman finally remembered he was a pretty good player and has improved tremendously. The only way I see Denver taking this game will be through inspired defensive play. To beat the Chargers, you have to shut down Phillip Rivers. He’s thrown only 6 picks this year, all scattered throughout the season, and is sitting on a 97.9 overall QB rating. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has turned the once abysmal Denver defense into a proud squad, and with the division on the line at home this Sunday, the Broncos Defense has A LOT to play for. The Broncos are on the verge of another potential collapse, and just like last season, the Chargers are in the position to take advantage of their downfall.
Prediction: San Diego over Denver
- Whether Kyle Orton plays or not, the offense will have trouble finding a rhythm while Phillip Rivers and the Chargers will air it out and score enough points to put the game away by the 4th quarter. The Rocky Mountain Meltdown of 2009 is looming for Josh McDaniels and his Broncos team.
UPSET OF THE WEEK: San Francisco OVER GREEN BAY
Not too much upset potential this week. The sports media is convinced the Packers have rebounded soundly following the victory over Dallas a week after their embarrassing defeat in Tampa. I still think they are way too inconsistent, and when the 49ers come to town, Aaron Rodgers will be in for one vicious pass rush. Niners coach Mike Singletary has a defensive philosophy that has kept them in games against high-powered offenses like the Colts and the Vikings. Much like the Packers, though, the 49ers have been battling their own fair share of inconsistent play. After a 3-1 start, the 49ers dropped four tough losses in a row before rebounding last week against the Bears. At 4-5. Mike Singletary is very much aware that crunch time for playoff contention is near, and he’ll have his team playing inspired football team. I think the 49ers are better than their record shows, but they haven’t been playing balanced football games due to injuries on the offense. If they want to stay close with Arizona for the division lead, they will have to start winning a good string of games. It starts in Green Bay. Feature back Frank Gore will have to try and find holes in the Packers defensive front early in order to ensure a balanced game. Alex Smith needs to manage to game and try to help his talented receiving core make big plays. Michael Crabtree’s been lighting up the stat board since he signed with the team. Now it’s time to reach the end zone. I think the 49ers win in a close one here and look to build a streak of games up towards a Week 14 showdown with the Cardinals. The Packers will once again show their inconsistency and come up short.
EVERYTHING ELSE…
Washington AT DALLAS
After an anemic performance in Green Bay, the Cowboys should be fortunate for their division lead. Washington, meanwhile, is coming off a big win against the Broncos and have some confidence restored after this meltdown of a season. Clinton Portis is still sidelined after a concussion a couple weeks ago, but things are continuing to look up. The Cowboys are playing for their division lives here, because in the NFC East, having a one game lead means nothing when you have the Eagles and the Giants right behind you. The Cowboys need to start running the football and forcing balance into the offensive scheme. Tony Romo has his moments, but you just cannot put the game in his hands. Dallas needs balance, and if they run the ball as much as they throw it, the Redskins become pushovers, no matter how solid their defensive line is. Dallas has proven they are lethal when they move the ball on the ground. When your number one wide receiver is dropping and fumbling balls, you have a problem. Roy Williams is ineffective as can be for the Dallas offense. Give the ball to Marion Barber and company.
Prediction: Dallas over Washington
Cleveland AT DETROIT
My god, I feel bad for anybody who actually is going to watch this game. To the credit of the Lions, they make games fun to watch because they are capable of scoring some points. Calvin Johnson is a fantastic receiver, and I’m not just saying that because he is on my fantasy team. Matt Stafford is far from great, but he has chemistry with his receiving core. If he can cut down on his mistakes, the Lions will be significantly better. I can’t say anything positive about the Browns here. Their offense is awful. Their defense is awful. Their organization is in severe need of personnel changes. These aren’t your daddy’s Cleveland Browns. In fact, they’re even worse.
Prediction: Detroit over Cleveland
Pittsburgh AT KANSAS CITY
In terms of morale, Kansas City should be feeling very confident after winning another game last week. Unfortunately, it was against Oakland, and it was a very ugly win. The Steelers are coming into town fresh off of their defeat against the Bengals, and it appears as if they are fighting for a wild card spot now. Don’t look for Kansas City to be some sort of trap game when you have coach Mike Tomlin running things. Tomlin’s Steelers make it to the playoffs by any means necessary. The defending Super Bowl champions lost control of the division after being swept by the Bengals, but they are easily the best team in the hunt for the AFC wild card berths. Outside of two divisional games against Baltimore and a potentially playoff-deciding contest for Miami in Week 17, the Steelers have a cakewalk of a schedule remaining. Ben Roethlisberger has been putting up pretty big numbers for a Steelers quarterback. His role as a game manager of a run first offense has shifted a bit in philosophy. Big Ben is airing out more in this season than he has in his entire career, and the results have been pretty solid. The Steelers travel to Baltimore next week in an important divisional game, so they need to build momentum. What better team is there to play to get your offense and defense adjusted accordingly than a punching bag like the Kansas City Chiefs?
Prediction: Pittsburgh over Kansas City.
Atlanta AT NEW YORK (GIANTS)
Both of these teams are at 5-4, but their records and current conditions hold different stories. For the Falcons, they are four games behind the unbeaten New Orleans Saints and can only make the playoffs by posting an impressive record for the wild card. After losing Michael Turner to injury and several other key injuries to the defense, the Falcons are reaching a panic mode. For the Giants, they are coming off of a bye week and are only a game behind Dallas in their division. Despite losing four straight games, the Giants are still much alive in the playoff hunt. Eli Manning has had some time to reassess his quarterback play, so there is a chance he can use this game as a bounce back to form. The Giants have been ineffective in their power running game, and that is what’s been dragging the Giants backwards significantly. Tom Coughlin needs to rely on what worked. This team needs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to start taking some snaps. If we were earlier in the season, I’d have the Falcons heavily favored over the Giants because they were healthier and hitting some strides. Matt Ryan has been throwing quite a few interceptions, though, and Michael Turner is injured. Their running game is suddenly almost a non-factor and the injuries are stacking up on both sides of the ball. The Giants need to utilize their weaknesses and assert themselves back into the mix of playoff contenders.
Prediction: New York Giants over Atlanta
New Orleans AT TAMPA BAY
Since their trip to Miami, many have questioned whether or not the Saints are as good as their record shows. Their last few games have been contested against clearly inferior teams, but in typical Saints fashion, the team finds ways to beat themselves. Drew Brees has been a bit careless with the ball, and the defense has endured some tough injuries, including comeback player of the year Darren Sharper. Last week created a lot of fuss after the Saints barely edged the 1-8 Rams by only 5 points. If this were any other year, New Orleans would be sitting somewhere between five and seven wins. The 2009 Saints are different. This team is 9-0, and no matter who or what you’re playing against, 9-0 is impressive. This team does not lose against itself anymore, and when they are healthy, they are the most complete team in the NFL. This week, they still remain a bit banged up. They travel to Tampa to play the 1-8 Buccaneers. Drew Brees needs a bounce back game to reassemble those MVP talks, so this game will either be a blowout or a close contest depending on which Saints team decides to show up. Regardless of who shows up, The Bucs are a pretty poor football team. Josh Freeman has been impressive and will have a career there in Tampa, but this is a rebuilding period for the team, and there is no such thing as contending when you’re playing a team that will most likely host the NFC Championship game. The Saints should be 10-0 after this game, and their injured players should be well rested heading into their gigantic showdown with the Patriots next Monday night.
Prediction: New Orleans over Tampa
Buffalo AT JACKSONVILLE
Don’t look now, but the Jaguars are at 5-4 and realistically in the hunt for the playoffs. Despite being blown out by the Seahawks and constantly plagued by inconsistency, the Jags are finding ways into the end zone and are just barely keeping things together on defense. Maurice Jones-Drew may have killed your fantasy team last week, but he is a main factor as to why Jacksonville even has a chance to contend in the first place. As for Buffalo? Well, Dick Jauron has finally been let go. This needed to happen because the Bills have been going nowhere for several seasons now. They have invested too much faith into failed prospects (Trent Edwards) and have tried to adapt to countless new play schemes and big signings (Terrell Owens) in free agency. They could never break the ceiling of 7-9, though, and this season has become a dud. Their offense has stalled tremendously and Owens has been about as productive as a slug. I only see Buffalo picking up about two more wins, and one of those is against a Colts team who will, in all likelihood, be resting their starters in Week 17…hell, I can’t even see them pulling that game out with a win!
Prediction: Jacksonville over Buffalo
Indianapolis AT BALTIMORE
If not for the Denver/San Diego clash, I’d say this would be the biggest game of the week. Baltimore is in desperate search of an identity as they stumble onward through the playoff race. After a hot start, the Ravens have failed to play consistently on defense. The Ravens are built on a defensive philosophy in which effects the production of the offense. When the defense is playing well, Joe Flacco manages the game well. Flacco is a great quarterback, but the offense he runs is not built for shootout play. In many games this season, Flacco has had to pick up the slack left by the defense, and while many times he has been successful, it has hurt this squad against teams like Minnesota and Cincinnati. Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and the rest of this veteran-led defense needs to pull out a big game here. Peyton Manning is playing out of his mind right now, and if he gets into a rhythm early, the Ravens won’t have a shot at hanging in there. The Ravens need to apply a pass rush that will knock Manning out of his comfort zone and force mistakes. The Ravens have a huge opportunity here to make a statement and get right back into the playoff hunt. While they may have the potential to soundly beat the Colts, I don’t think it happens here. Even when the Colts make mistakes, they rebound on both sides of the ball and still find ways to win. The Colts are the best team in the AFC.
Prediction: Indianapolis over Baltimore.
Seattle AT MINNESOTA
Brett Favre has a double sided coin of fortune and misfortune with the Seahawks. In the 2007 Playoffs, Favre led the Packers to victory after falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter. Last year, as a Jet, Favre threw several picks and had an awful game, which would ultimately end up costing the Jets a playoff berth. History will not play a factor into this game by any means. Favre’s a Viking now, and the Vikings are an overall solid football team. The Seahawks have way too many injuries and setbacks keeping them from contending with most of the teams in the league right now. Julius Jones has shown some promise in the running game in recent weeks, but when there is a football game with Adrian Peterson on the roster, there is no discussion about running games. Adrian Peterson will have a solid game if he can find some holes in a relatively competitive Seattle defensive front , and Brett Favre will definitely not have the game he had last year in the snowy Qwest field. This year, Favre’s in a dome. This year, Favre’s going to win.
Prediction: Minnesota over Seattle
Arizona AT ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are hot right now. Kurt Warner is in a groove and the running game is starting to emerge soundly. Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower have been excellent in moving the ball and opening up the passing game for Warner. If they continue their balanced play, the Cardinals will find themselves playoff bound once again. The Rams have shown a lot of competitive promise recently, especially last week against the unbeaten Saints. Steven Jackson is such a phenomenal player as both a runningback and a receiver. Donnie Avery has provided some progress as well. The offense is starting to take form and score points, and their defense is starting to come alive. The Rams have a long way to go, and it is unlikely they stop the Cardinals here, but progress is progress, and that’s the mentality first year coach Steve Spagnuolo has been trying to set in stone since he was hired.
Prediction: Arizona over St. Louis
New York (Jets) AT NEW ENGLAND
It is amazing how fast everything changes as the season continues onward. In Week 2, the Jets looked to be the biggest surprise in the NFL after completely throwing Tom Brady into a pass rush frenzy and defeating the Patriots 16-9. The Patriots looked average two weeks into the season and Tom Brady definitely was not playing up to his known level. Here we are at Week 11 and the Jets have fallen into a midseason collapse at 4-5 and the Patriots are quickly coming back into rhythm. The controversial call by Bill Belichick may or may not have decided the game against the Colts last week, but regardless, the Patriots still lost. They want to avenge their loss by gaining revenge on their division foes. Brady is playing great right now and is in perfect sync with his receiving core. As for Mark Sanchez, his great start has been long forgotten due to poor play and rookie mistakes. The Jets are quickly falling from contenders to pretenders. The defense is allowing too many points to be scored and the offense is turning the ball over far too much. Thomas Jones has quietly had a great season on the ground, and if the Jets want to win this game, they need to pound the ball through their throats. The Jets need to start winning games. They have a four game stretch with games against Carolina and Atlanta, both of which play hard despite their setbacks. They finish the season against the Colts and the Bengals, and if they are lucky and need a couple wins, both of those teams may be resting up for the playoffs. The Jets control their own faith, though, and they need to start winning soon. It doesn’t start this week, though, as the Patriots have their eyes on the division crown and the AFC’s second seed.
Prediction: New England
Cincinnati AT OAKLAND
The Bengals are the hottest team in the league, so it is no surprise people are counting on the Raiders to be a trap game team like they were against the Eagles. Don’t expect that to happen here. The Raiders have a quarterback controversy and the whole organization continues to be a mess. Even if Jamarcus Russell is not the starter, they picked the wrong team to try and start fresh with. Cedric Benson is unlikely to play this game due to a short term injury, but his absense will be a nonfactor. The Bengals are too good to lose to a team this bad.
Prediction: Cincinnati
Philadelphia AT CHICAGO
Any little hopes the Bears have in making the playoffs depend on this game. Jay Cutler turns every game he plays in into an interception fest. He’s thrown four more picks than Jake Delhomme this season. It doesn’t help that the Bears have barely any weapons on offense. Matt Forte has fallen into a sophomore slump, and Devin Hester can only do so much for this team. Like it or not, the Bears finally have a franchise quarterback, but it is too little too late. The Bears are no longer a consistent defense and there is a lack of production on offense. If Cutler played for the 2006 Bears, that team could have won a Super Bowl. The 2009 Bears are depleted and plain. As for the Eagles? No Westbrook, no problem. They need a big win to put themselves back into the NFC East race. McNabb and the rest of the offense will be up to the task.
Prediction: Philadelphia
Tennessee AT HOUSTON
The Texans host Monday Night Football for the second time ever, but this year they could potentially fight for the playoffs and get even more appearances on the big primetime stage. The Titans have shown some life since making Vince Young the starter. The defense is playing better and Chris Johnson is still destroying defenses on the ground and through the air. After three straight wins, though, they will have to settle for a halt. The Texans are hungry for the playoffs and are in a position to contend. Starting with this game, they have a three game stretch of division games, two others against the Colts and the Jags. Even if they go 2-1 in this stretch, they are in good shape as they progress with the rest of their schedule: Seattle, St. Louis, Miami, and New England. If the Texans miss the playoffs, they can still lock up a winning season, which is better than nothing. For this squad, though, it’s playoffs or bust. They have to show they can contend with elite teams by beating either Indianapolis or New England. The AFC wild card race is going to be a very crowded race, and for the Texans, they absolutely have to show that they can beat superior teams. The stretch starts Monday against the Titans. Matt Schaub has been fantastic this season, finding receivers and keeping the offense on balance. They do have a few inconsistency issues, but whether or not they can overcome the little issues goes a long way in proving their worth in playoff contention. I think the Texans start digging deep right here.
Prediction: Houston
Other tidbits…
- The Dolphins beat the Panthers last night 24-17. To the six people that watched this game, how impressive was Ricky Williams last night? …no, seriously, didn’t he play or something? I was watching The Office.
- Larry Johnson is now a Bengal in relief of the injured Cedric Benson, continuing to show that Cincinnati is the number one place for football career resurgences if you’re a thug or a criminal.
- Reggie Bush is doubtful for this weekend’s game in Tampa. I guess if you’re Reggie Bush, being productive and effective in a game for once is simply just too physically demanding.
- If you played Maurice Jones-Drew in fantasy last week and lost because of his kneel at the one yard line, it’s okay….it turns out Mojo himself started him (that was weird to type) and lost as well. The difference between MJD and us geeky fantasy footballers? Maurice Jones-Drew actually has money. ::sigh::
Until next week…
-Bobby
