NFL Week 12 Predict-a-thon: An Un-Saint-like Season, and the Superdome Showdown (and those other fifteen games)
I think I will just get right to the point.
New Orleans. New England. Monday Night Football.
It has been continuously hyped by ESPN and all other sports outlet as the “Superdome Showdown”. Two of the best quarterbacks on the planet, each armed with high-scoring offenses. One team is undefeated. The other is the only team in history to go 16-0. By all accounts, this is about as perfect as it gets for football games.
This column is all about the Shootout of the Century (how’s that for big hype monikers, ESPN?) on Monday night, but we’ll cover that game shortly.
Because this column is written by a Saints fan. An uncomfortable Saints fan.
Every preseason, there is a phenomenon among my fellow Black and Gold enthusiasts. We are always contradicting our team’s legitimacy for playoff contention. Some sort of draft pick, or offseason trade, or personnel change…whatever it may be, always gets “Who Dat” nation giddy.
“This is the year!” “Super bowl bound!” “Destiny awaits!”
Sixteen games later, including a combination of a) rough start, b) midseason choke, c) last minute winning surge amounting to nothing, d) injuries, or e) something extraordinarily embarrassing, and we’re faced with familiar results. 7-9. 8-8. 3-13.
Rinse and repeat for about half of a century. And here we are.
Except this time, it is different. While an offseason full of hype, excitement, and playoff expectations is typical Saints fan tradition, the 2009 campaign has been anything but.
Rough starts? A Week 1 exhibition with the Lions would surely guarantee a winning start. Traveling to Philadelphia, home to an Eagles team with a high-powered offense, and Buffalo back to back is, as history has shown, simply too much to endure for a team like the Saints.
3-0. Well, that’s something.
But, surely, the Saints would stumble to a shutdown, clutch defense like Rex Ryan’s 3-0 Jets. And a complete team as well coached as New York’s other football franchise, the Giants. The Big Apple is simply too much for the Big Easy this year.
5-0. A little out of the ordinary, I suppose.
But let’s be real. The AFC has quality teams from top to bottom, regardless of what records suggest. The remodeled Saints defense can’t possibly contain a Wildcat-obsessed team like the Dolphins on the road in Miami. And what about the NFC South? Atlanta looks like playoff contenders, and Carolina has NEVER LOST in the Superdome since the division had been established.
8-0, surpassing the best start in franchise history? Wait a minute.
At some point, this Saints team has to slip. History has proven so. Especially against the Rams. The Saints always lose to the Rams. They also lose to really, really bad teams, and Tampa Bay fits the bill. Eventually, we need to see a break in the losing column.
10-0. Okay, I am feeling queasy.
I’m not used to dominance this great, or win streaks this extensive. I’m not even used to winning! I’m a Saints fan. I’m part of a fan base that has dealt with heartbreak, disappointment, Katrina, and, worst of all, having to rely on Aaron Brooks. I have seen some solid starts. I have seen some rebounds after losing streaks. I have seen this team overcome significant injuries. But, in the end, it has always been the same. The playoffs are always lacking some black and gold tint.
The 2009 New Orleans Saints are unlike any Saints team we are accustomed to. We don’t have inaccurate quarterbacks like Bobby Herbert or Aaron Brooks. We have Drew Brees, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league and easily the greatest free agent signing the Saints franchise has ever had. We don’t have ego-driven playmakers like Joe Horn, who cared more about touchdown celebrations than the actual importance of the score. We have several players who make big plays and are given the chance to make them as much as everybody else is. Colston. Meachem. Even Jeremy Shockey has turned a new leaf. And we may not have a signature, juggernaut force like the Dome Patrol defensive line, but we have something else we never had: a complete team.
And I will gladly accept that over any sack, pro bowl, or tackle records our legendary defensive line contributed.
This Saints team is unstoppable on offense. The depth at wide receiver is incredible; every eligible receiver is a potential play maker. The defense has plenty of holes, but the unit tackles hard and forces more turnovers than any other defense in the NFL— they currently lead the league in turnovers.
It is almost frustrating how great this team is. This team is not supposed to come back from double digit point deficits. This team is not supposed to win games in which they turn the ball over significantly. This team is not supposed to blowout good teams. Call me crazy, but I actually kind of miss it when this team loses.
For the 2009 season, though, such an occurrence has not been in the cards. The Saints have overcome the plagues in which have kept their franchise grounded for nearly fifty years. Critics have always verbally mocked and destroyed this franchise for its reputation of underachieving and disappointing. Here we are at Week 12, and critics are declaring this team one of the best in the league.
Championship teams require no-nonsense establishment in all aspects of the game. Critics believe elite teams should manhandle below average teams. Critics believe that championship teams should be complete on both sides of the ball, winning games with offense AND defense. Critics insist that championship teams stay high and mighty in their division, never allowing their division rivals to stay close and beating them when it counts the most. Critics never considered the Saints a championship-calibur team due to their history of poor ball handling and inconsistent play. Saints history has presented a franchise unable to win big games. Or unable to produce comeback victories. Or unable to recover from sloppy play.
In Week 1, the Saints bullied an inferior Lions team, never at one point being competitive with Detroit’s squad of losers, despite high scoring from both sides. Beating up on inferior teams? Check.
In Week 2, the Saints engaged in balanced offensive and defensive play at Philadelphia, catching an Eagles team with a respectable defense and a high-powered offense off its guard. Showcasing balance on both sides of the ball? Check.
In Week 3, the Saints established the threat of the running game and dominated the Bills in a very windy Buffalo stadium in which rendered Drew Brees ineffective. Winning games with the running game? Check.
In Week 4, the Saints defeated a 3-0 Jets team whose defense prevented Drew Brees from scoring. Sturdy defensive play completely threw Jets quarterback, Mark Sanchez, off of his game, and the Saints made a statement on defense. Winning games with defense? Check.
After a Week 5 bye, The Saints absolutely pounced on an undefeated Giants team, scoring on both sides of the ball and dominating in virtually all aspects. Winning games by completely outplaying the opponent? Check.
In Week 7, the Saints fell behind by 21 points due to poor play and turnovers, but then came back, offensively and defensively controlling the game, and won by a 12-point margin, despite the setbacks. Winning by coming from behind? Check.
In Week 8, the Saints beat their division rivals, the Falcons, on Monday Night, despite turning the ball over numerous times and playing sloppy. Winning games despite self-inflicted miscues that could potentially lose the game entirely? Check.
In Week 9, the Saints, despite more sloppy play, beat a Carolina Panthers team that has never lost in the Superdome since the NFC South division had been estbalished. Winning games that removes a monkey off your back? Check.
In Week 10, the Saints completely beat themselves with turnovers, poor play on both sides of the ball, and injuries…yet, still managed to keep their poise and beat a competitive Rams team. Winning despite poor play, injuries, and other setbacks? Check.
And in Week 11, the Saints crushed the lowly Buccanneers on the road offensively and defensively. In this game, they completely showcased the kind of dominance championship teams possess.
There are not many more questions to answer. There is really not much to prove. The Saints have shown dominance, poise, balance, and resilience towards setbacks. Overall, they have shown championship potential, and at 10-0, they have complete control of their playoff destiny; even losing several games would still ensure a playoff spot in a conference as wide open this year as the NFC.
But there is one final test that goes a long way towards proving the legitimacy of a playoff team. It goes beyond establishing running games, winning with defense, and coming from behind to ensure victory.
This Monday, on prime time teleivision, one of the most successful franchises of the decade will be on the other side of the Superdome’s artificial turf. Three Super Bowl championships. A 16-0 season. A future hall of famer at quarterback. The New England Patriots are on a run for redemption, and this point in the season, they look about as good as they have in any of their four Super Bowl seasons.
To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man. And while a victory against the Patriots is quite an enduring feat, even losing in impressive fashion could be enough to give this Saints team the final iccing on the championship cake. Just ask the 2007 New York Giants.
Without question, this is the biggest game in the history of the New Orleans Saints franchise. Bigger than that playoff game against the Rams in the 2000 season. Bigger than that divisional game against the Eagles in 2006, or even the NFC Championship game of the same year. This is the game that will finally reveal once and for all where the Saints stand among the elite teams in the NFL this season. In the company of the elite, the Saints are in a dog fight for top honors against the Vikings, Colts, and the Patriots. By defeating the Patriots, the Saints make a significant statement. The Vikings have yet to play a high-quality team and sit at 9-1. And even though the Colts beat the Patriots, they were outplayed big time in that game, and a failed fourth down conversion made all of the difference in the world. By beating the Patriots in prime time on Monday Night, the Saints become THE team of the NFL, and the road to the playoffs could potentially be an encore of the incredibly impressive 16-0 season the Patriots achieved in 2007.
Times have changed for Who Dat nation. The Saints have never been 10-0. The Saints have never overcome so many obstacles or criticisms with the amount of consistency and poise that they have this season.
And at Week 12, the critics the NFL nation are still uncertain of their championship contention. Many gambling lines have the Patriots as favorites in the game this Monday.
Nevertheless, Saints nation has been as loud and as excited as they have ever been. After nearly fifty years of inconsistency, hurricanes, underachieving, embarrassment, and overall disappointment… Saints fans are finally in unison for their team. They are 10-0 and on their way to the playoffs, and regardless of whether or not they win this Monday, they will still be our potential championship team. Even if they somehow lose the last six games, we will stand behind our team until their run is over. Even if the Saints go 16-0, and then lose their first playoff game, there is no backing down on our team.
Because we are Saints fans. We were still here after the Dome Patrol could no longer keep our abysmal offense in games. We were still here after the Mike Ditka years. We were still here after every Aaron Brooks pick-six. We were still here after Katrina threatened to take our homes and our team away. We were still here after every 3-13 season. We were still here after the franchise gave away Jake Delhomme, who led his Panthers team to a Super Bowl a year later.
Time will tell if this clearly is the year of destiny for our lovable losers. There are still six games in the season, and a lot can happen, but regardless of the conditions, there is no stopping the enthusiasm of this team’s fanbase. And in the Superdome this Monday night, Saints nation will be as loud and as rabid as they have ever been.
Win, lose, or tie, Tom Brady’s going to have one hell of a headache when the Superdome Showdown is over and done with.
Onto the games!
WEEK 12 PREDICTIONS
(Home teams are in ALL CAPS)
GAME OF THE WEEK: New England AT NEW ORLEANS
We’ve heard and seen all of the comparisons between this year’s Saints offense and 2007’s Patriots offense. Bill Belichick still has a lot of his marquee players from that 2007 offense on his squad. The main edge New England has over the Saints’ passing game is within the play of their best players. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are going to be all over the field, and unless the battered Saints defense are cautious and balanced with their pass rushing and their coverage, Tom Brady is going to light up the score board just as much as the Saints offense will. The Saints have an important advantage over New England in their running game. Laurence Maroney is a great player, but is frequently far too ineffective. If the Saints can shut Maroney down, you already put more pressure on Tom Brady to air it out. For the Saints, Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas continue to be fantastic in the running game, and if they can establish some big plays early, the defense will have way too much trouble containing the Saints offense. Defensively, everything really depends on the injuries for the Saints. Vilma is battling knee issues and Greer is still rehabing his hamstring. If Vilma does not play, the Patriots will find much more ease in outsmarting the coverage. This game is literally going to come down to turnovers. The Saints have had trouble holding onto the ball lately, and the Patriots have been applying much more pressure in their defensive play. They completely harrassed the Jets last week and forced alot of interceptions. If the pass rush is effective at all against the Saints, Drew Brees is going to have a difficult time getting into a rhythm. This game can really go either way, but if I had to pick, my money goes to New England for a couple reasons: less injuries, and Wes Welker. The Saints defense will be a completely different kind of animal without Vilma, and without Greer, the pass defense will not be able to handle much of Tom Brady’s quarterback play. Which leads to Wes Welker, who has been absolutely unstoppable throughout the past few weeks. Defenses that double up on Randy Moss and other big play makers on the Patriots offense can never find a scheme that shuts down Welker. He is extremely quick, runs the sharpest routes, and arguably makes the biggest plays out of every other player on the field. The Saints are going to find much difficulty in covering Welker, and he’s going to make all the difference in the world in this game. It’s going to be close, but New England is coming away with the win in this one. Believe me, it took a lot for me to settle on this prediction.
Winner: New England
UPSET OF THE WEEK: Arizona AT TENNESSEE
I am officially on the Vince Young bandwagon. He’s effectively found ways to win since he’s been given the starting job. He doesn’t strive for big plays. He manages the offense as cautiously as can be, and is a lot less careless with the ball than Kerry Collins was. His streak this season will improve to 5-0 because they are playing the Cardinals at a very vulnrable time. Kurt Warner is not going to be playing at one hundred percent, and history has shown that Kurt struggles when playing with health setbacks. The Cardinals are very dependant on Kurt Warner. When he came out of the game last week against the Rams, the offense became stagnant. The Titans are going to take advantage of this aspect and provide a lot of pass rush packages. Look for the Titans to try to reestablish hard hitting defensive play in order to win the game. Oh, and Chris Johnson is going to have another big game.
Winner: Tennessee
EVERYTHING ELSE
Tampa Bay AT ATLANTA
Meangingless NFC South action. The division will be wrapped up within the coming weeks by the Saints, and the Falcons are in disarray after stumbling through their last several games. Michael Turner may possibly return to the lineup, and that is fortunate because their playoff contention is steadily slipping away. The Falcons need to start playing their best football if they want to even have a shot at the postseason. They could not have had a better game to start building a streak on than a home game against the poor Bucs. Look for Matt Ryan to have a big, bounce-back game.
Winner: Atlanta
Miami AT BUFFALO
The Dolphins are in control of their playoff hopes. They currently lead the wild card race and are playing well behind Ricky Williams and the Wildcat. The Bills have a pulse on offense, but are still essentially a mess all around. Even when they managed to give Terrell Owens the chance to make some big plays, they still come up short. Miami should dominate this game and make a clear statement to the rest of the AFC wild card hopefuls.
Winner: Miami
Cleveland AT CINCINATTI
The Bengals had a fitting return to historical form last week by losing to the lowly Raiders. Losing those kinds of games really hurts the legitimacy of a team. The Bengals need to bounce back with a dominant win. The Browns offense had a big turnout last week. Unfortunately, it was against the Lions. The Bengals are much different of a team on defense, and they will prove it Sunday.
Winner: Cincinatti
Seattle AT ST. LOUIS
The Rams are playing the role of Lions, showing heart and guts week in and week out. Steven Jackson won’t be at the top of his game this week due to a minor injury, so a big game out of him may not be plausible. He engineers the production of this offense, so the Rams are going to have quite a difficuly getting anything going. Kyle Boller is starting for the injured Mark Bulger…which is either bad news or a blessing in disguise. Regardless, the Seahawks historically play well in St. Louis. They will edge out the Rams here, but it will be closer than one would think.
Winner: Seattle
Carolina AT NEW YORK (JETS)
Despite poor play, I still believe the Jets are much better than their record shows. Mark Sanchez has killed this team with turnovers, but Rex Ryan is not going to let this continue to be a game-changing factor. His staff is working with the offense to completely retool the production of Sanchez and his receivers. The Panthers offense will be kept quiet if the Jets can shut down the running attack early. jake Delhomme is going to have trouble against this Jets secondary, who has continued to play relatively well despite the recent trend of losses. Look for a bounce back game for the Jets here.
Winner: New York
Washington AT PHILADELPHIA
The Redskins owe any amount of competitiveness to their defense, who has kept them in games constantly throughout the season. They just need to finish games. They managed to quiet the Cowboys offense last week up until one final drive, which ended up resulting in the only touchdown. That touchdown would end up causing the Redskins the game. This will be a much different game. McNabb’s got bigger playmakers than Romo does. If the offense can play consistently, the Redskins will not hang around too long.
Winner: Philadelphia
Indianapolis AT HOUSTON
Peyton Manning will be playing with a small injury in this game, and the defense continues to have injuries pile up. Many consider this to be the game where the Colts finally drop a game. I think otherwise. The Texans are too inconsistent, and Matt Schaub’s great season is rendered useless when the rest of the team plays at a lower level. The Texans will stay competitive with the Colts, but their recent trend of being unable to wrap games up will continue, and the Colts will edge it out in another nailbiter.
Winner: Indianapolis
Kansas City AT SAN DIEGO
The Chiefs are coming off a huge win against the defending champions and a two game winning streak, unfamiliar territory for a team that has struggled tremendously this season. The streak ends against in San Diego. The Chargers are playing like a complete team. LT is in the midst of a career resurrection as of late, as is Shawn Merriman, and Phillip Rivers continues to play well. This won’t be a trap game by any means, but the Chiefs will keep it interesting for a couple quarters.
Winner: San Diego
Jacksonville AT SAN FRANCISCO
The Jags have control of a playoff spot currently, but holding onto it within the coming weeks will be quit the challenge. It starts here with a disappointed 49ers team, who look to be on the outside looking in for their respective wild card chase. I don’t see Mike Singletary being too happy with his team, who may be playing for pride at this point. Just like last season, though, Coach Singletary made this team look like winners when it didn’t matter. That trend may start again here. Frank Gore and Maurice Jones Drew will both have solid games on the ground, but the 49ers will attempt to reestablish itself with the passing game, and the results will be positive.
Winner: San Francisco
Chicago AT MINNESOTA
Unless the Bears win out, their playoff chances are done for. That is too much to ask out of Mr. Interception, Jay Cutler. But he’s not all to blame here for Chicago’s losing ways. The running game is depleted and the defense gives up too many big plays. Expect more of the same when they visit a Vikings offense that is firing on all cylinders. Brett Favre’s been pretty outstanding this season, accuracy-wise, and will continue to contribute solid numbers here, especially if Adrian Peterson is slow to start. The Vikings may even dominate this game.
Winner: Minnesota
Pittsburgh AT BALTIMORE
Ben Roethlisberger is officially out. As is Charlie Batch. Dennis Dickson gets the start. Who? Exactly. The Ravens caught a huge break here, and they needed it after stumbling through their recent stretch of games. The Ravens continue to search for an identity, but they will have a chance to provide more of a showcase offensively now that Big Ben is sidelined. Joe Flacco needs to have a solid outing here to really make a statement against their rivals, because with Big Ben injured, the Steelers offense will slow down tremendously. Unless this Dennis Dickson character ends up being the second coming of Tom Brady or something. The chances of this are unlikely, though. The Ravens defense should have a monstrous game.
Winner: Baltimore
